能源經濟及策略、新及再生能源、火力、核能及核設施除役、原子科技及民生應用的專業資訊平台



The Potential Abatement Cost of Taiwan’s Energy Transition Target: A Global Dynamic Model Analysis

出處 United States Association for Energy Economics 作者 袁正達、洪瑋嶸、柴蕙質、陳彥亨 年份 2018/9
報告類型 國際研討會 分類 |能源經濟及策略 資料時間 2019年7月

Since the Taiwan’s government has shown its determination in cutting greenhouse gas and none-nuclear homeland policy in 2025 by launching various strategic measurements, what is the potential abatement cost and implications for Taiwan remains unclear. This paper builds an economic-wide, recursive-dynamic EPPA-Taiwan model to evaluate potential abatement cost and its implication to industrial production, generation mix, and sectoral emissions regards to latest energy policies under the framework of global climate commitment. The scenario analysis indicate that Taiwan’s aggressive NDC mitigation target which reduce 50% BAU emissions by 2025 will not be achieved even energy transition policy is reached. Second, we found that the great mitigation responsibility and pressure puts on the coal-fired power plant and it still needs to cut more than 60-70% from BAU to meet Taiwan’s NDC target. Nonetheless, a numbers of and environment legislation have been launched for Taiwan to move forward to a none-nuclear and sustainable society, more low-carbon technological options (such as IGCC with CCS) and stringent regulation should be considered to complement with nuclear-free policy and NDC target by 2025.

 

 

檔案下載:Economic Implications.pdf